Picture I took in Doha, in Qatar, one of the Countries Benefiting From the War in Ukraine

5 Countries Benefiting From the War in Ukraine and Crises of 2022


Some people expected to go back to normalcy after the end of the COVID pandemic. But they could not get more wrong than that.

What 2022 has delivered to us so far is:

But all these crises are not affecting everyone in the same way. Some countries are cruising through 2022 with flying colors.

I interviewed some economists and fellow entrepreneurs and also consulted reliable sources of data to discover the countries benefiting from the war in Ukraine and all the turmoil of 2022.

One of them is very counter-intuitive (and if you disagree, I will be glad to read why in the comment section), but all of them, in 2022, are antifragile.

Norway

GDP Growth forecasted for Norway during 2022: 3.4%

Inflation forecast for 2022: 5.6% (Norway’s Central Bank)

Main opportunities:

The oil and gas industry makes up 20% of Norway’s economy, and 67% of all Norwegian exports. After putting sanctions on Russia, Europe looked for other ways to get energy, and Norway was one of the first places they looked. So it is an obvious name in this list of countries benefiting from the war in Ukraine.

Even though the production of the Scandinavian kingdom isn’t enough to cover all the volume that was once bought from Russia, both the volume exported and financial revenues are on the way to beat all the records.

A bit off-topic: Norway has an insane amount of electric cars, partially because electricity is so cheap there — and not reliant on fossil fuels.

Norwegians are already among the wealthiest people in the world, and projections show that their GDP will grow by 3.4%, which is unusual for developed, wealthy countries, even in times of peace.

Main threats:

Inflation in Norway is already at a 33-year high

Brazil

GDP Growth forecasted for Brazil in 2022: 2%

Inflation forecast for 2022: 7.15%

Main opportunities:

In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Brazil took a position of economic neutrality (although diplomatically Brazil condemned the Russian invasion).

This was a good move for Brazil and put it in this list of countries benefiting from the war in Ukraine, since the country exports a lot of food and needs fertilizers from Russia. With the prices of beef, grains, and other items going through the roof, Brazilian exports are breaking record after record, Their currency, the Real, is one of the best-performing during 2022.

Main threats:

I asked Gabriel Schühli, a Brazilian economist and expert in the public sector, about the threats to the national economy:

Dependence on potash (a fertilizer) and oil refining came up. Despite being good at agriculture and having oil reserves, we have several weaknesses. Internal debate on the country’s future will include R&D investment, favorable legislation, and trading partner diversification.

Also, it’s important to remember that Brazil will have general elections in 2022. The results of these elections could have a tremenduous effect on the country’s future.

All the Hows of a First-Time Business Owner: There is a thin line between bankruptcy and the freedom to be an entrepreneur: An idea for a present for yourself (or to any entrepreneur).
An idea for a present for yourself (or to any entrepreneur).

Poland

GDP Growth forecasted for Poland in 2022: 5.2%

Inflation forecast for 2022: 14.4% (Fitch Ratings)

Main opportunities:

You probably want to know why Poland is here, in a list of countries benefiting from the war in Ukraine. After all, it is a country that is next to the biggest war zone in Europe since World War II.

And that’s exactly why Poland is here, dear reader.

The war pumped the Polish economy from many sides. 

Main threats:

Russia, of course, but also sanctions from the European Union courts, which is in constant attraction with the Polish government.

Even though Poland has full gas reserves, the European Union’s “solidarity mechanism” could force Poland to share its reserves with countries like Germany that failed to fill their own. Germany, besides failing to fill its emergency gas reserves, also considered the reckless decision to turn off its nuclear power plants.

The United Arab Emirates

GDP Growth forecasted for the UAE in 2022: 5.4%

Inflation forecast for 2022: 5.6%

Main opportunities:

People from wealthy countries like Russia and China are moving to the UAE in large numbers. The Visual Capitalist says that in 2022 alone, they will have a net immigration (immigration minus emigration) of more than 4,000 very rich people. This is more than any other country in the world has. In comparison, Switzerland only had 2200.

Rich Russians and Chinese who want to leave their own countries’ problems are driving up the prices of luxury villas, apartments, and prime real estate in places like Dubai. Sales increased by 51%.

Main threats:

The United Arab Emirates is a country heavily reliant on food imports. Disruptions in the supply chain and rising fertilizer costs could lead to a spiral of price inflation and threaten the food security of GCC countries.

The war in Ukraine affected drastically food supplies. Map of Food exporters and importers, Food Security Map
Food Security Map. Source: USDA and Eurostat.

Qatar

GDP Growth forecasted for 2022: 5.1%

Inflation forecast for 2022: 4.4%

Main opportunities:

Qatar has the 3rd largest natural gas reserves in the world, and the 3rd largest exporter, just below Russia and the US. Gas prices are rocketing and as a consequence Qatari revenues.

Since February, European nations have asked Qatar for more LNG (liquefied natural gas) shipments. That includes Germany, whose economy depends on Russian gas more than any other in Europe. A new European gas pipeline will be built this summer on the border between Greece and Bulgaria. This will make it even easier to get gas to the continent.

Main threats:

Since almost 70% of the government’s revenue comes from the Oil&Gas industry, Qatar’s economy is pretty much a one-horse show. The country is doing well while oil prices are high, but a global recession induced by higher interest rates and an economic crisis could cause oil prices to drop again.

Also, like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar imports a lot of food, so any problems with supplies could have a big effect on prices and supermarket shelves in the country.

Talking about food security, here you can check some countries that may collapse during the next 12 months due to inflationary spirals, recession, and food supply problems.


If you are not “lucky” enough to live or invest in any of the countries benefiting from the war in Ukraine, the following two articles could be useful:

Good luck, and good reading.

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Levi Borba is the founder of expatriateconsultancy.com, creator of the channel The Expat, and best-selling author.

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